How did the Tories do? Part 1
Saturday marked 100 days since the General Election and the Sunday papers were full of reviews of Keir’s first three months.
There’s going to be plenty of time to judge the new Labour Government.
Accountability in politics is a good thing, so before we allow the last Tory government to drift into the mists of historical memory, it’s probably worth stopping and checking how they actually did.
I don’t mean subjectively (you may have your own opinions. I know I do).
I mean how did they do by their own standards?
I’ve been back to look at their 2010 election manifesto. They had 14 years to deliver it, so it should be a slam dunk.
Let’s see if it is.
The title of our bit is to…
“Create a modern transport network.”
It opens:
A rebalanced economy requires an extensive and reliable infrastructure. But transport has been a low priority for Labour, and the hassle of getting around is bad for business, bad for families and bad for everyone’s quality of life.
This doesn’t really say anything. Let’s move onto the first pledge:
A Conservative government will begin work immediately to create a high speed rail line connecting London and Heathrow with Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds. This is the first step towards achieving our vision of creating a national high speed rail network to join up major cities across England, Scotland and Wales. Stage two will deliver two new lines bringing the North East, Scotland and Wales into the high speed rail network.
Hmmm. Well, they did begin work. That bit was fulfilled. And the London / Heathrow bit was delivered (if you define Old Oak Common, roughly an average of the two, as London / Heathrow). Birmingham is also a tick. Manchester and Leeds, nope. And as “for two new lines bringing the North East, Scotland and Wales into the high-speed network”, this remains a distant fantasy 14 years after the British people voted for it.
How many people even remember that this was a firm Tory manifesto commitment?
It’s kind of Heathrow if you squint a bit…
Let’s move on.
Because travel abroad is so important for our economy and for family holidays, we need to improve our airports and reduce the environmental impact of flying. Our goal is to make Heathrow airport better, not bigger. We will stop the third runway and instead link Heathrow directly to our high speed rail network, providing an alternative to thousands of flights. In addition, we will: • block plans for second runways at Stansted and Gatwick; and, • reform Air Passenger Duty to encourage a switch to fuller and cleaner planes.
It’s pretty hard to argue that Heathrow was linked directly into the high speed rail network (it’s something of a stretch to describe the Acton - Aston shuttle as a network and it doesn’t serve Heathrow). The rest of this section is largely a promise not to do things (not building runways at various airports) and they successfully did not do these things. The reform to Air Passenger Duty became an utterly surreal, climate change-defying cut.
Maybe the section on rail reform will be a clearer win:
To improve life for commuters and encourage people to switch to lower carbon public transport, we will reform our railways to provide a better focus on tackling problems that matter most to passengers, such as overcrowding. We will grant longer, more flexible rail franchises to incentivise private sector investment in improvements like longer trains and better stations.
Oh. Longer, more flexible rail franchises became shorter, more rigid rail franchises. In fact, they did precisely the opposite of what they promised in this section.
What’s next?
We support Crossrail and the electrification of the Great Western line to South Wales. We will turn the rail regulator into a powerful passenger champion and reform Network Rail to make it more accountable to its customers. And we will introduce a moratorium on building on disused rail lines still in public ownership, so they are available to be re-opened.
This looks like a fulfilled promise…
Ah, here’s something that happened! The manifesto writers are very fortunate that they promised the electrification of the Great Western to South Wales (which did happen) and not to Bristol (which did not). The Rail Regulator did not become a powerful passenger champion and Network Rail did not become more accountable. The moratorium on building on disused rail lines in public ownership was a great manifesto project as there are few of them, so can be delivered with virtually no effort (though, technically, it’s not been fulfilled as Old Oak Common station itself is being built on the disused line to South Ruislip, but I’ll let this one pass).
What’s next then?
Britain has the chance to lead the world in making our transport system greener. So we will introduce incentives for electricity network operators to establish a new national car recharging network, making it much easier for drivers to move to electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. We will support sustainable travel initiatives that work best for local communities by: • giving the concerns of cyclists much greater priority; • encouraging partnerships between bus operators and local authorities; and, • helping people cut down on work-related travel.
Incentives for electricity network operators to establish car recharging networks would be a great idea. I hope someone does that.
Sustainable travel initiatives also sound like a good idea. Slightly bizarrely, the goal of “helping people cut down on work-related travel” turned into a campaign against home-working when people voluntarily did exactly this post-pandemic. Another one where the reality turned out to be the reverse of the manifesto.
The promise to encourage partnerships between bus operators and local authorities was finally achieved in 2021 with the publication of the National Bus Strategy which, literally, “encouraged” partnerships: though the funding that was intended to lubricate the partnerships vanished.
Let’s see what was promised for roads:
We will stop central government funding for new fixed speed cameras, and switch to more effective ways to make our roads safer, including authorising ‘drugalyser’ technology for use in testing for drug-driving. We will make companies that dig up our roads accountable for the congestion they cause and crack down on rogue clampers. Councils will get more powers to get traffic flowing more smoothly.
Hey, hey, a fully fulfilled promise! Drugalysers came in on the 2nd March 2015. Moreover, the promise to make companies that dig up roads more accountable can be said to have been fulfilled by the introduction of lane rental schemes in 2012.
Overall, the roads section was pretty unambitious but seems to have been delivered.
Finally, what about fuel prices?
We will consult on the introduction of a ‘Fair Fuel Stabiliser’. This would cut fuel duty when oil prices rise, and vice versa. It would ensure families, businesses and the whole British economy are less exposed to volatile oil markets, and that there is a more stable environment for low carbon investment
What a genius idea! This is exactly what is needed! Far better than just holding down fuel duty while ramping up public transport fares, thus directly incentivising an increase in private transport use at the expense of sustainable modes.
And the good news is that the Tories did indeed fulfil their promise to consult.
And, having consulted, they introduced the Fair Fuel Stabiliser in 2011.
And, having introduced it, they then completely ignored it for the entire rest of their time in Government…
What do we think?
Hmmm - it’s not a great record.
14 years is a seriously long time.
The words on this blog post, by the way, are not selective: this is the entire transport section of the Tory manifesto.
The rail section is a car-crash (if you’ll pardon the multi-modal metaphor): the high-speed ambitions were woefully unfulfilled, the reform plans stagnated and only the painfully unambitious pledge to electrify the Great Western to South Wales was fulfilled.
The aviation promises were largely to not do things and they did not do those things. The local transport promises were vague and waffly and were, potentially, fulfilled in part. The roads promises were largely fulfilled but the “fair fuel stabiliser” turned into a dramatic real-terms price cut: a cut that was not replicated for sustainable modes.
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Tomorrow I’ll take a look at the 2019 manifesto.
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